I feel like I’m at Yellowstone National Park as the geyser blows sky-high with the DJIA up 390 points today. A little bit of pressure release from a 3 day weekend with no major negative developments.
You do have to look at today’s action as compared to the volatility of the last several weeks. In tonight’s video I do that, briefly review the trade ideas and then look at AAPL prior to it’s big press briefing tomorrow. Continue reading
People will use the phrase, ‘but it’s different this time’ for why things that have happened in the past won’t happen again. We’re smarter now. We have better technology now. And on and on. But when it comes to human beings, human nature, emotions, habits don’t really change all that much.
So when I think about the phrase ‘it’s different this time’, I think about how something that has happened in the past, could happen again…just in a different way. 2008 was a wake-up call. All the experts talked about how you need to diversify your investments to protect yourself. Except when all things go down together, like they did in 2008, it didn’t matter. It was different that time.
The markets have crashed in a big way before, can they do it again? Absolutely. On August 25, 2007 the DJIA closed at 2722.41. Thirty-eight trading days later it closed at 1738.74, down 36%. On the last day of that move the DJIA dropped 22.6% on October 19, Black Monday.
They still call it the Crash of 1987. But, the market came back because that was the stage of the bull market that it was in. When you look at a long-term chart, it barely shows ups as a blip on the chart. it was different that time.
1929 was the end of a final wave up of a cycle that started in the 1840’s. The top occurred on September 3, 1929 closing at 381.17. Fifty-six trading days later it was down 47.9%, closing at 198.69 on November 13, 1929. That was the end of the first wave down, Wave A. But the final bottom didn’t occur until July 8, 1932 at 41.22.
So here we are 76 days and -14.4% (low close on 8/25) from the peak close on May 19. Where do we go from here? All anyone knows for sure is that it will be different this time. In today’s video (below) I review where I believe we are from a wave count perspective.
In addition to all the detailed information provided in the Weekend Market Analysis video, I review the weekly charts of AAPL, NFLX and CVX.
The DJIA was +23 points today. The S&P500 (SPX) and the NYSE Composite Index (NYA) were also up slightly. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 were both down. So mixed results.
In the Weekday Market Wrap video below I talk about the market action today that the close doesn’t tell you. I check in on Cyber Ark Software (CYBR) and Gilead Sciences (GILD) and also talk about a new trade idea on Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR). Continue reading
The DJIA was up 293 points today as volatility continues to ripple thru the global markets. Several of the global markets have made efforts at retesting the August 24-25 low but so far the U.S. markets haven’t. I review several of the global markets along with our market in tonight’s Weekday Market Wrap video. I also review the two big percentage gainers of the 56 stocks I am closely watching. Continue reading
Selling pressure started to build last night with futures down big. China had more negative news that reinforced the slowdown picture. Japan dropped 3.8%. So the DJIA ended the day down 469 points. All of the indices had similar results. In the video below I show how my wave count on the DJIA continues to point lower. Stocks in focus are GPRO, LUV, ADBE, LULU and AAL. Continue reading
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