Category Archives for "Financial"

Financial Stocks – What are They Telling Us Now?

financial stocks

In 2007 the financial stocks started breaking down and did not confirm the indices’ new highs in October.  And in 2000 they didn’t confirm the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).  However, markets never play out exactly the same way.

The Federal Reserve raised the Federal Funds rate in December 2015 for the first time since 2006.  They have since raised 3 additional times. The last in June of this year.

So now, 8 1/2 years after the markets bottomed in the Financial Crisis, the Fed Funds rate stands at 1.00-1.25%. This is the same level that it was after the Fed cut rates to 1.00% on October 29, 2008. Continue reading

Will This Change Help the Financials?

Today the focus is on State Street Global Advisors (SSGA)’ Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF). This ETF is usually either the number 2 or number 3 most actively traded non-index ETF.  3 month average daily volume of a little over 40 million shares.

Sector Changes

In June S&P Dow Jones Indices and MSCI, Inc. announced they were modifying the S&P sectors to remove real estate from the financials (except mortgage REITS) and create a new S&P real estate sector.

So in order to continue accurately tracking the sectors, SSGA announced they were removing real estate holdings from the XLF and creating a new ETF called the The Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLRE).

Special Dividend

Removing real estate from the Financials will take place after the close on September 16.  XLF will issue a special dividend to its shareholders as part of this adjustment. Ex-dividend date is September 19.  The dividend will be in the form of shares of the new XLRE fund.

So going forward starting September 17, XLF will include securities of diversified financial services, insurance, banks, capital markets, consumer finance, thrifts and mortgage finance, and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs).

The chart of XLF is discussed in the brief market wrap video shown below. The three largest holdings in XLF are Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B, at 9.18%, JP Morgan Chase & Co. at 8.01% and Wells Fargo & Company at 7.59%.   Continue reading

Contrarian Perspective

Death of Equities, a contrarian perspective helpsWhen it comes to the markets, I believe you need to be thinking with a little bit of a contrarian perspective.  When  a lot of people are doing the same thing or talking about the same thing then “red flags” should go up in your mind.  One of the classic signals of the last 50 years was when BusinessWeek had their “The Death of Equities” cover of their magazine on August 13,1979.

When the psychology gets to the point where the magazines are putting it on the cover, then many times it means we are probably at or near an extreme.  On August 13, 1979, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was 875, 10 years later it was around 2700 and around the beginning of the year 2000 it had closed at 11,722.  One of the greatest bull markets of all time. Continue reading

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