Category Archives for "Market Analysis"

July 1929

Is this the July 1929 Stock Market?

We just can’t get 1929 out of our minds. I say we because I know that are a few others out there who are still haunted by the crash that led to the Great Depression and World War II.

Why? I think, for one reason, the crash seemed to appear out of no where and became devastating.  And although the “Great Recession” of 2007-2009 was very bad, it did not lead to the devastation of post-1929.

I believe the Great Recession was the first shot across the bow.  And to fight it, the major central banks of the world did the only thing they knew how and that was to flood the world with cash to prevent deflation.  

So here we are, 8 years and 4 months from the low in March 2009.  And where do we find ourselves? July 1929.  Continue reading

NASDAQ today

NASDAQ Today | Test of the Bull Underway

The NASDAQ got hit hard on Friday. The NASDAQ Composite Index was down 114 points (1.8%) and the NASDAQ 100 was down 143 points (2.44%). The NASDAQ has been pushing higher and higher over the last several months leaving the other indices in the dust. But Friday was the biggest downdraft in many months.

My preferred Elliott Wave count on the NASDAQ composite shows 5 complete waves up  for the Trump rally since the election and thereby completing 5 waves up from the February 2016 low.  If this count is to hold, continued selling will need to kick in and trendlines will start to break.

Tired Bull?

This has already started to happen on a couple of the so-called FANG stocks…Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Netflix (NFLX) and Alphabet a.k.a. Google (GOOGL). All of these stocks got hit with heavy selling on Friday. Continue reading

VIX at Extreme Lows Again, But for How Long?

Yes the VIX has been low off and on over the last few years. And by low I mean in the 10.5 to 12.0 range. But over the last 4 weeks we’ve had several closes below 10.

Friday’s close was the lowest since December 27, 1993.

There have only been two other days in the history of the VIX with lower closes. Both of those were December 22nd and 23rd of…you guessed it…December 1993. Continue reading

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