Stock Market Clock Inches Closer to Midnight

The stock market clock is indeed inching its way closer and closer to midnight. In the video below I briefly review the S&P 500 daily and weekly charts as well as the VIX weekly chart.

I then dive into the long-term monthly chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and talk about how my Elliott Wave count syncs with Professor Shiller’s CAPE ratio. The stock market clock is indeed close to striking midnight on the entire bull market. Continue reading

Thanksgiving Weekend Market Analysis

In this Weekend Market Analysis video I look at the market action for Friday in all the major U.S. indices, my indicators and key market ETFs like High Yield Bond Fund (HYG), 20+ Year Treasury Bonds (TLT), U.S. Dollar Index, oil and gold.

I also review the weekly charts for the major U.S. indices as well as China (Shanghai and Shenzhen Composite Indices), Japan (Nikkei 225), Germany (DAX), United Kingdom (FTSE 100) and France (CAC).

I then review my ETF Dashboard that shows results for the week, month and year for the key market segments, indices, commodities, emerging markets and currencies.

This week I review the charts of the Semiconductors ETF (SMH), US Telecom ETF (IYZ), China Large Cap ETF (FXI), Copper ETN (JJC) and the Euro ETF (FXE).

Watch the Video

Semiconductor Stocks May be Hitting the Ceiling

In this stock market update video I focus on the semiconductor sector. I start off reviewing the Nasdaq Composite Index and one of its key indicators. I then look at both the Semiconductor ETF (SMH) and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX).

Finally I check in on the top 6 semiconductor stocks of SMH. These are Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Intel (INTC), Nvidia (NVDA), Applied Materials (AMAT), Micron Technology (MU) and Texas Instruments (TXN). These 6 companies account for 42% of the holdings in SMH.

The SOX Index and 4 of the top 6 holdings in the SMH are bumping up against key resistance levels. With this happening after a very extended rally, the caution flags are out.

Are Biotech Stocks Starting to Break Down Again?

In the video below I focus on the biotech stocks. I look at two key ETFs…the Nasdaq Biotech ETF (IBB) and the S&P Biotech ETF (XBI). I then look at the top 5 holdings of the XBI.

I’ve looked at IBB many times but really haven’t looked at XBI.  They are two different animals and give you exposure to biotech stocks in different ways.  IBB is cap weighted and has some big names like Amgen (AMGN), Biogen (BIIB), Gilead Sciences (GILD), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) and Celgene (CELG). These top 5 holdings make up about 35% of all the holdings in IBB. Continue reading

Financial Stocks – What are They Telling Us Now?

In 2007 the financial stocks started breaking down and did not confirm the indices’ new highs in October.  And in 2000 they didn’t confirm the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).  However, markets never play out exactly the same way.

The Federal Reserve raised the Federal Funds rate in December 2015 for the first time since 2006.  They have since raised 3 additional times. The last in June of this year.

So now, 8 1/2 years after the markets bottomed in the Financial Crisis, the Fed Funds rate stands at 1.00-1.25%. This is the same level that it was after the Fed cut rates to 1.00% on October 29, 2008. Continue reading