Tag Archives for " SMH "

irrational exuberance

Irrational Exuberance…2017 Style

So Snapchat, now known as Snap, Inc. (SNAP) went public last week and it was a feeding frenzy.  Shares priced at $17 started trading at $24 and closed that first day at $24.48 with 217 million shares traded.  Friday they piled on an additional $2.61 closing at $27.09.  

I believe at one point the total estimated value of Snap was well over $40 billion.  Incredible for a company that lost $500 million last year.  And they don’t have any competition…right? We’ll see.

But their timing is perfect. Coming public at a time when bullish readings on the stock market are at 30 year highs…at least the Investor’s Intelligence Advisors Survey last week was.  With the stock market at all-time highs and consumer confidence at the highest since 2000 it’s “party on Wayne”! Continue reading

If You think you're beat...get out

If You Think You’re Beat…Get Out

Poker or gambling in general has very interesting correlations to trading. In both you are dealing with uncertainty, the ability to handle your emotions and how well you manage your money.  

And doing all of those things gets back to discipline and your ego. Let’s start off with knowing when to fold ’em as they say in poker or as they say in trading…cutting your losses.  Some good basic rules of poker apply to trading.

Know When to Fold ’em

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Under Armour

Under Armour…we’re not there yet

This week was a big down week for Under Armour (UAA) dropping $8.43 (29%) to close at $20.70.  On January 31st, UAA reported disappointing earnings and forward guidance did not help.

By the way UAA is the ticker symbol for the Class A stock and replaced the original common ticker. UA is for the Class C stock.

Back on June 1, 2016 I posted a video in which I analyzed UAA’s stock.  In this video I talked about how I believed that UAA had undergone an extended wave 5 in its push to the top in September 2015, and would now have a significant correction.  Here is the weekly chart from that video. Continue reading

Santa Claus Rally

No Santa Claus Rally Again This Year

The Santa Claus Rally in the stock market has typically been defined as a rally that occurs between Christmas and New Year’s Day.  Well that didn’t happen this year or last year or the year before.  

In December 2014 the S&P 500 (SPX) was down 1.1% then chopped up and down in January ending the month down 3.1%.

In December 2015 the SPX was down .84% then got whacked pretty good in January ending down 5.1%.  (at one point it was down 11.3%) Continue reading

uncertainty

Trump Uncertainty Disappears in a Matter of Hours…

or so the stock market might have you believe. All we heard ahead of the election was how a Trump victory would create nothing but uncertainty for the market.

As results poured in Tuesday night and it became more and more clear that Trump was going to win, the markets went into a tailspin. Eventually the futures went limit down and could not trade lower for the rest of the overnight session.

That caused selling to abate and buying to come in and the market began to bounce. And then Trump claimed victory. He gave a very nice acceptance speech.  He talked about all the rebuilding that’s going to get done…pulling the country together…and the buying continued.

By the time the market opened at 9:30am ET, the market was back to about even and then rallied all day, with the DJIA up about 257 points. So it took just a few hours and all that uncertainty went out the window. Really? Continue reading

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