Category Archives for "Metals"

Gold Still Trending Higher

This post is based on an excerpt from the Weekend Market Analysis published for the Insider Membership.

The chart below shows the weekly view for the Gold ETF (GLD).  Gold is tracing out a large ZigZag corrective pattern. The first leg down was Primary Wave A (circled) that completed in December 2015. The next wave is Primary Wave B (circled) that doesn’t appear to be complete yet. Wave B (circled) consists of 3 waves: Wave (A) that ended in July 2016, a triangle Wave (B) that ended in April 2019 and a Wave (C) that still appears to be underway.

Data thru Friday, October 11

This next image shows a little more detail to what looks like the final leg up. At this point I have labeled Minor Waves 1,2, 3 and 4 of Wave (C).  Since waves 1 and 3 are fairly equal in size, I am looking for Wave 5 to be larger than wave 1 or 3, as it pushes higher. We still don’t have confirmation that Wave 4 has finished, but we may be getting close.

Data thru Friday, October 11 (this is an image from a video)

Is Gold Breaking Higher or Much Lower

Gold has been in rally mode since its low in December 2016. But it has been a struggling rally with many overlapping waves. My preferred count has the Gold ETF (GLD) pushing higher over the next few months but the picture has become muddy of late.

The major indexes in the U.S. stock market peaked on January 26.  Gold also peaked about that time and is actually down as of Friday’s close.

There has been much talk recently that inflation is on the rise. There has been and continues to be chaos in the geopolitical scene with possible trade wars brewing and real wars in the Middle East.

So is gold about to explode  and rally to new highs above the August- September 2011 peak or is it about to turn down and plummet to new lows?

I mentioned above that I am short term bullish. But that scenario needs to see gold to rise soon and break out of the trading range it has been in since late January.  But even then, I am not looking for new all-time highs.

The move down from the 2011 peak to the low in December 2015 occurred in 5 waves.  So we are now in a countertrend. This countertrend is expected to be a zigzag but could morph into a couple of other patterns also.

If gold breaks down from here then the odds increase that the rally high in July 2016 is the top of the countertrend and gold will then be starting a new leg down that will take out the December 2015 lows.

Why would gold plummet to new multi-year lows? Maybe the deflationary crescendo hasn’t occurred yet.  Maybe interest rates are going to rise dramatically. Maybe central banks will be liquidating some of their gold holdings.

I don’t know what could cause it to drop. All I know for sure is what I see in the charts. We monitor gold every day in the Insider membership.

What is Going on with the Price of Gold?

In today’s video I look at the Gold ETF (GLD) to see what it is telling us about the price of gold.  I also check in on the Gold Miners ETF (GDX) and Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ).

The price of gold has trended up slightly so far this year. It has been a fairly choppy move.  I actually thought we were starting to see another push higher this week but it broke down and stalled out.  The Dec futures contract closed at $1280 on Friday. Continue reading

What is Dr. Copper Saying Now?

In this video I look at the Nasdaq Composite Index, the VIX, 3 key ETFs, copper futures and Freeport McMoran (FCX) the 2nd largest copper producer in the world. Continue reading

Where are the Gold Miners Headed?

Today I am starting a series of weekly posts about the most actively traded ETFs. My initial focus will be on ETFs that invest in stocks that trade in the United States.

I am starting with the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX).  GDX has a 3 month average daily volume of 73.6 million shares.  Various sources have the Gold Miners listed as either the number 1 or number 2 most actively traded ETF.

Gold Miners

The chart below is a daily chart of GDX.  I talked about GDX, GDXJ and NUGT back in a video on August 6th.  At that time I felt that these ETFs were at the end of a 5 wave run or very close to it.  I was a few days early. Continue reading