New video this evening on stock trade ideas for the coming week. We review LVS, TWTR and YOKU which were trades exited last week. We also review NEM, VLO, FCX and X which were trade ideas from last week. Finally we look at FSLR and P to possibly add.
Well the monthly Payroll number released on Friday somewhat surprised to the upside and the market initially rallied. But that petered out as the day went on. Ukraine continues to hang over the market. That hangover caused the Dow to only be up 35 pts and the Nasdaq was down 16. So a mixed market.
Today China released export numbers that shocked everyone in that February was the biggest percentage drop year over year, since August 2009. The consensus from economists was for a gain of 8%. They are also dealing with their first ever default by a company in the onshore bond market. So these things will weigh on the market on Monday. So the hangover from last week’s Ukraine situation may get worse but so far the market seems to be saying “he ain’t heavy, he’s my brother” and just keeps pushing and pushing to the upside. We review the market picture in today’s video and look at what it means if the Dow Industrials breaks the December 31st high. Continue reading
The stock market today was fairly tight but positive most of the day. It still keeps pushing to the upside. The Unemployment Claims came in a little lower than expected this morning and the market had a somewhat positive bias to it all day long.
Tomorrow we get the Non-farm Payroll Report also called the Jobs Report at 7:30am CT. This is one of the bigger economic reports each month and usually has a big impact on the market. It will tell us how many jobs were gained last month and what the unemployment rate is…”officially”. Continue reading
The market goes from a state of compression to expansion back to compression. Well today was very compressed again as everyone was trying to assess what’s happening in Ukraine and elsewhere.
The range on the Dow Industrials was about 60 points today and was the narrowest range in the last 11 days. The S&P 500 was even more compressed. Its range was the narrowest in 44 trading days, all the way back to Dec. 30, 2013. Continue reading
Today’s market move was basically a tension release. It was sure needed after yesterday. It also seems to reinforce the fact that this market continues to find a way to move up. It seems to have shrugged off the manufacturing slow down in China…at least for now. We still have the big jobs report coming out on Friday and the situation in the Ukraine is far from settled.
Trading Psychology
One of the more valuable books on trading psychology is The Tao of Poker by Larry W. Phillips. I’m going to focus on some of his poker rules going forward.
Rule 18: Take the long view. This is all about making correct trading decisions. It’s about following your process or methodology. You want to win over the long-term, not just today. And if you win today because you took a risk that went against your methodology, then you are doing yourself more harm than good.
“You are rewarded for correct play in the long run; in the short run, anything can happen.”
- Tom McEvoy, champion poker player
In tonight’s video we look at the tension release in the market action and discuss two new trade ideas on FCX and NEM.
In tonight’s stock trade ideas update we review all the stock trade ideas from last week. No new trade ideas for this coming week, just carrying over the trades on LVS, TWTR and YOKU that are still ongoing.
The Ukraine situation is roiling the markets at the moment. It may be hard to establish new positions in options in the first hour or so tomorrow morning.
